85%

Win Probability

+27.0

Projected Margin

CI: [+7.0 to +47.0]

Boom Potential

Jason Myers

Bust Risk

Bucky Irving (50%), Rams D/ST (61%), Jameson Williams (48%), Omarion Hampton (50%), Juwan Johnson (60%)

Start/Sit Decisions

QB: Start Jordan Love over Jacoby Brissett Higher projection (15.0 vs 13.0)

RB1: Start Bucky Irving over Omarion Hampton Higher projection (16.0 vs 11.0)

RB2: Start Omarion Hampton over Devin Singletary Higher projection (11.0 vs 10.0)

WR1: Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Jameson Williams Higher projection (21.0 vs 17.0)

WR2: Start Jameson Williams over Rashee Rice Higher projection (17.0 vs 15.0)

TE: Start Juwan Johnson over Hunter Henry Higher projection (9.0 vs 8.0)

FLEX: Start Rashee Rice over Tetairoa McMillan Higher projection (15.0 vs 14.0)

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

Slot	Player	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Confidence
QB	Jordan Love	DEN	14.8	15.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
RB	Bucky Irving	ATL	15.2	16.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
RB	Omarion Hampton	KC	11.7	11.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	IND	20.8	21.0	MODERATE	HIGH
WR	Jameson Williams	LAR	13.9	17.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
TE	Juwan Johnson	CAR	9.7	9.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
K	Jason Myers	IND	8.5	12.0	MODERATE	HIGH
D/ST	Rams D/ST	DET	4.2	6.0	BUST	HIGH
WR	Rashee Rice	LAC	17.2	15.0	MODERATE	HIGH

Waiver Wire

Add/Drop Recommendations

ADD Chiefs D/ST (D/ST) 43% boom / 21% bust

ADD J.K. Dobbins (RB) 42% boom / 20% bust

ADD Garrett Wilson (WR) 36% boom / 35% bust

Protected (Playoff Positioning)

Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Luther Burden III (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts))

Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.

Executive Summary

Week 15 presents a favorable matchup against Auto DraftKings with a projected 122-95 advantage. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR1 ECR) leads the charge against a weak Indianapolis secondary, while Jameson Williams benefits from the week's highest game total (53.5) against the Rams. Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) is a game-time decision and sits on the bench as a precaution, with Rashee Rice drawing the FLEX start despite a tough Chargers matchup.

Key Insights

JSN is WR1 overall in ECR with 10-point spread advantage vs IND
DET-LAR has 53.5 game total - highest of week, boosting Jameson Williams
MHJ (heel) DNP Wednesday, ECR dropped to WR100 - BENCH
Rashee Rice faces #1 WR defense (LAC) but still WR7 in ECR
Jason Myers K2 ranking with SEA -10 favored = high upside
Bucky Irving RB8 ECR vs weak ATL run defense (#23)
Hunter Henry benched - BUF is #1 vs TE
Win probability: ~85% based on 27-point projected margin

Matchup Status (Week 15)

0.0 - 0.0 vs Auto DraftKings

Games Pending (16)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Jacoby Brissett	QB	QB	13.9	13.0
Bucky Irving	RB	RB	15.2	16.0
Omarion Hampton	RB	RB	11.7	11.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	WR	20.8	21.0
Rashee Rice	WR	WR	17.2	15.0
Juwan Johnson	TE	TE	9.7	9.0
Jameson Williams	WR	RB/WR/TE	13.9	17.0
Jason Myers	K	K	8.5	12.0
Rams D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	4.2	6.0
Devin Singletary (bench)	RB	BE	10.8	10.0
Hunter Henry (bench)	TE	BE	10.3	8.0
Jordan Love (bench)	QB	BE	14.8	15.0
Luther Burden III (bench)	WR	BE	8.1	8.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench)	WR	BE	12.8	8.0
Tetairoa McMillan (bench)	WR	BE	13.2	14.0
Tyjae Spears (bench)	RB	BE	10.1	8.0

0.0 Actual

122.0 LLM Total

115.1 ESPN Total

Opponent: Auto DraftKings

Opponent Games Pending (16)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Caleb Williams	QB	QB	16.1	---
Jonathan Taylor	RB	RB	16.7	---
Sean Tucker	RB	RB	2.9	---
A.J. Brown	WR	WR	16.8	---
Justin Jefferson	WR	WR	15.7	---
Dalton Schultz	TE	TE	8.9	---
Emeka Egbuka	WR	RB/WR/TE	12.0	---
Jake Elliott	K	K	8.0	---
Commanders D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	3.2	---
C.J. Stroud (bench)	QB	BE	17.2	---
Courtland Sutton (bench)	WR	BE	13.2	---
David Njoku (bench)	TE	BE	4.1	---
Jakobi Meyers (bench)	WR	BE	11.9	---
Kenneth Gainwell (bench)	RB	BE	12.6	---
Khalil Shakir (bench)	WR	BE	10.5	---
Wan'Dale Robinson (bench)	WR	BE	14.7	---

0.0 Opp Actual

95.0 Opp LLM Total

100.3 Opp ESPN Total

Projected Margin: +27.0 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 49% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 27% BOOM, 22% BUST (balanced). DEN has #4 ranked pass defense - tough matchup limits upside. Game total 41.5 is moderate. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts (within 9-24 range).

Context: O/U: 41.5^ˢ | ECR: 16^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	CHI	17.6	18.0	19.3	+1.6
13	DET	15.7	18.2	25.8	+10.0
12	MIN	17.4	-	7.1	-10.4
11	NYG	16.3	-	17.7	+1.3
10	PHI	17.0	-	7.8	-9.1
9	CAR	18.1	-	9.0	-9.1
8	PIT	17.1	-	28.3	+11.2
7	ARI	17.4	-	13.4	-4.0
6	CIN	19.3	-	15.0	-4.4
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	18.6	-	26.3	+7.7
3	CLE	16.0	-	11.1	-4.9
2	WSH	17.6	-	20.9	+3.3
1	DET	14.9	-	15.9	+1.0

Trending up: 17.4 avg (last 3) vs 11.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.53)
Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 73% BOOM (historical outlier - small sample). XGB: 14% BOOM, 38% BUST. HOU #1 vs QB - toughest matchup in NFL. ARI underdog by 7.5. QB20 ECR is streaming tier. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 13.0 pts (within 7-22 range).

Context: O/U: 43.5^ˢ | ECR: 20^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	LAR	15.3	19.0	19.0	+3.7
13	TB	17.2	20.5	19.6	+2.4
12	JAX	16.7	-	18.7	+1.9
11	SF	17.9	-	21.9	+3.9
10	SEA	15.3	-	19.4	+4.2
9	DAL	19.4	-	24.8	+5.4
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	16.6	-	19.8	+3.2
6	IND	13.4	-	20.7	+7.3
5	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	CAR	0.0	-	0.2	+0.2
1	NO	0.1	-	0.0	-0.1

6-game streak of beating projections
Averaging 11.7 pts vs 9.4 projected (+24%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.91)
Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Bucky Irving (TB vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 65% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 11% BOOM, 50% BUST (concerning). Despite poor XGB, ATL is #23 vs RB (favorable) and ECR is RB8. TB favored by 5.5 with 44.5 total suggests positive game script. Trust ECR over XGB bust signal. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts (within 8-20 range).

Context: O/U: 44.5^ˢ | ECR: 8^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 65% | BOOM: 19%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 50% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	NO	16.4	16.0	16.1	-0.3
13	ARI	11.8	12.0	16.1	+4.3
12	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	NE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	NO	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	PHI	17.5	-	25.5	+8.0
3	NYJ	17.9	-	13.9	-4.0
2	HOU	15.9	-	18.1	+2.2
1	ATL	17.3	-	14.5	-2.8

Trending up: 10.7 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.25)
Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs SF)

Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 67% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 15% BOOM, 38% BUST. SF #11 vs RB (neutral-tough). ECR RB47 is very low. TEN big underdog (-12.5) suggests negative game script. Mode: MODERATE (lower end). Projection: 8.0 pts (within 3-15 range).

Context: O/U: 43.5^ˢ | ECR: 47^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

4-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.99)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs KC)

Projections: ESPN 11.7 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 11% BOOM, 50% BUST (bearish). LAC at KC in divisional game, LAC slight underdog. Hampton has RB22 ECR, moderate role. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 11.0 pts (within 6-18 range).

Context: O/U: 44.5^ˢ | ECR: 22^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 50% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	PHI	12.1	8.0	14.7	+2.6
13	LV	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	18.6	-	13.0	-5.6
4	NYG	16.7	-	27.5	+10.8
3	DEN	12.2	-	24.9	+12.7
2	LV	15.7	-	3.5	-12.2
1	KC	14.7	-	8.1	-6.6

Trending up: 4.9 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.49)
Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Devin Singletary (NYG vs WSH)

Projections: ESPN 10.8 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 58% BUST, 22% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 14% BOOM, 55% BUST. BUT: WSH #27 vs RB (excellent matchup!). Game total 46.0, NYG slight favorites. Trust matchup over XGB. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts (within 4-16 range).

Context: O/U: 46.0^ˢ | ECR: 32^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NE	6.3	-	19.2	+12.9
12	DET	9.9	-	4.7	-5.2
11	GB	9.6	-	17.7	+8.1
10	CHI	9.7	-	10.3	+0.6
9	SF	5.5	-	7.1	+1.6
8	PHI	1.2	-	3.8	+2.6
7	DEN	0.8	-	0.2	-0.6
6	PHI	1.0	-	1.0	+0.0
5	NO	6.0	-	3.4	-2.6
4	LAC	7.4	-	2.8	-4.6
3	KC	1.1	-	1.1	+0.0
2	DAL	3.2	-	1.0	-2.2
1	WSH	3.5	-	0.9	-2.6

Averaging 5.2 pts vs 4.6 projected (+13%)
Trending down: 8.0 avg (last 3) vs 11.7 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs IND)

Projections: ESPN 20.8 | LLM 21.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 41% MODERATE, 29% BOOM (historical). XGB: 12% BOOM, 24% BUST (moderate). WR1 ECR ranking, IND #21 vs WR (favorable), SEA -10 favorites. High target volume expected. Mode: MODERATE (upper end). Projection: 21.0 pts (within 13-25 range).

Context: O/U: 43.5^ˢ | ECR: 1^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 24% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	ATL	20.9	22.0	28.1	+7.2
13	MIN	21.9	24.0	4.3	-17.6
12	TEN	21.3	-	37.1	+15.8
11	LAR	23.0	-	20.6	-2.4
10	ARI	22.0	-	20.3	-1.7
9	WSH	24.5	-	22.0	-2.5
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	20.0	-	26.3	+6.3
6	JAX	17.9	-	30.2	+12.3
5	TB	15.9	-	27.2	+11.3
4	ARI	16.4	-	13.0	-3.4
3	NO	15.5	-	20.6	+5.1
2	PIT	14.4	-	18.3	+3.9
1	SF	14.7	-	19.4	+4.7

Averaging 20.5 pts vs 17.8 projected (+16%)
Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 34% MODERATE, 50% BUST (historical). XGB: 21% BOOM, 22% BUST (balanced). NO defense #10 vs WR (neutral). Low game total (39.0) caps upside. Traded to CAR mid-season, still establishing role. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.0 pts (within 8-20 range).

Context: O/U: 39.0^ˢ | ECR: 13^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 21% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	13.0	11.3	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	-	11.5	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	-	33.0	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	-	11.0	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	-	8.6	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	-	16.9	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	-	6.3	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	-	17.9	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	-	13.3	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	-	10.2	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	-	7.8	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	-	16.0	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	-	11.8	-2.1

Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 12.8 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 31% BUST, 43% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 47% BOOM, 18% BUST (bullish). HOWEVER: DNP Wednesday (heel), ECR dropped to WR100, HOU #5 vs WR (tough). Per Hampton Rule, not setting to 0 but heel injury + tough matchup = significant downgrade. If plays, limited snap count likely. Mode: BUST. Projection: 8.0 pts (within 1-9 range).

Context: O/U: 43.5^ˢ | ECR: 100^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 47% | Bust 18% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	LAR	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	TB	13.7	14.0	12.9	-0.8
12	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	SEA	13.3	-	14.3	+1.0
9	DAL	13.3	-	22.6	+9.3
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	12.5	-	7.8	-4.7
6	IND	11.9	-	5.2	-6.7
5	TEN	12.8	-	13.8	+1.0
4	SEA	11.3	-	18.6	+7.3
3	SF	12.7	-	7.4	-5.3
2	CAR	14.0	-	4.7	-9.3
1	NO	13.9	-	18.1	+4.2

Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs LAC)

Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 31% BUST, 26% MODERATE, 43% BOOM (historical). XGB: 25% BOOM, 33% BUST (cautious). LAC #1 vs WR - elite defense severely caps ceiling. ECR WR7 shows talent but matchup is brutal. Mode: MODERATE (lower end). Projection: 15.0 pts (within 10-22 range).

Context: O/U: 44.5^ˢ | ECR: 7^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 33% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	HOU	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.7
13	DAL	18.1	18.4	29.4	+11.3
12	IND	17.6	-	24.1	+6.5
11	DEN	16.4	-	9.8	-6.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	18.4	-	18.6	+0.2
8	WSH	17.2	-	25.5	+8.2
7	LV	13.7	-	23.2	+9.5
6	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	BAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	LAC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Averaging 9.9 pts vs 8.5 projected (+16%)
Trending up: 20.3 avg (last 3) vs 9.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.18)
Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE, 24% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13% BOOM, 48% BUST (bearish). BUT: Game total 53.5 is ELITE, LAR #19 vs WR (favorable), WR10 ECR. DET offense explosive. XGB bust signal likely noise - trust game environment. Mode: MODERATE (upper). Projection: 17.0 pts (within 10-22 range).

Context: O/U: 53.5^ˢ | ECR: 10^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	DAL	13.8	17.3	17.3	+3.5
13	GB	11.8	15.1	26.9	+15.1
12	NYG	12.9	-	0.0	-12.9
11	PHI	12.6	-	19.7	+7.1
10	WSH	12.1	-	23.9	+11.8
9	MIN	11.0	-	16.6	+5.6
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	TB	13.2	-	0.0	-13.2
6	KC	10.7	-	18.6	+7.9
5	CIN	11.8	-	2.0	-9.8
4	CLE	10.7	-	5.7	-5.0
3	BAL	12.9	-	6.3	-6.6
2	CHI	13.0	-	18.8	+5.8
1	GB	12.9	-	6.6	-6.3

Trending down: 14.7 avg (last 3) vs 20.1 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Luther Burden III (CHI vs CLE)

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 57% MODERATE, 31% BUST (historical). XGB: 14% BOOM, 44% BUST. CLE #8 vs WR (tough). Low game total (39.5). CHI offense struggling. WR35 ECR. Mode: MODERATE (lower end). Projection: 8.0 pts (within 3-15 range).

Context: O/U: 39.5^ˢ | ECR: 35^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	GB	10.3	8.0	11.0	+0.7
13	PHI	8.3	-	7.6	-0.7
12	PIT	7.6	-	9.1	+1.5
11	MIN	6.2	-	5.7	-0.5
10	NYG	3.4	-	8.1	+4.7
9	CIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	BAL	4.8	-	0.9	-3.9
7	NO	4.9	-	3.1	-1.8
6	WSH	4.8	-	9.1	+4.3
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	LV	5.8	-	1.6	-4.2
3	DAL	2.7	-	19.8	+17.1
2	DET	2.7	-	1.5	-1.2
1	MIN	3.2	-	0.7	-2.5

Averaging 5.6 pts vs 4.6 projected (+21%)
Trending up: 9.2 avg (last 3) vs 4.6 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.01)
Season high: 19.8 pts in Week 3

Juwan Johnson (NO vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 42% MODERATE, 26% BUST (historical). XGB: 15% BOOM, 60% BUST (bearish). CAR #20 vs TE (favorable) but low game total (39.0) and XGB bust signal concerning. TE15 ECR is mid-tier. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts (within 5-14 range).

Context: O/U: 39.0^ˢ | ECR: 15^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	TB	9.7	10.0	7.8	-1.9
13	MIA	8.7	11.0	8.9	+0.2
12	ATL	9.3	-	10.6	+1.3
11	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	CAR	8.9	-	19.2	+10.2
9	LAR	8.3	-	12.1	+3.8
8	TB	9.6	-	10.3	+0.7
7	CHI	7.5	-	12.9	+5.4
6	NE	7.9	-	1.5	-6.4
5	NYG	7.9	-	3.7	-4.2
4	BUF	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
3	SEA	10.6	-	11.1	+0.5
2	SF	9.1	-	15.9	+6.8
1	ARI	7.3	-	15.6	+8.3

Averaging 9.7 pts vs 8.3 projected (+17%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Hunter Henry (NE vs BUF)

Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 48% BUST, 40% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 8% BOOM, 61% BUST (strong bust signal). BUF #1 vs TE - toughest matchup. TE16 ECR. Despite high game total (49.5), TE rarely benefits. Mode: BUST. Projection: 8.0 pts (within 2-8 range).

Context: O/U: 49.5^ˢ | ECR: 16^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 61% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NYG	11.2	-	11.3	+0.1
12	CIN	11.4	-	24.5	+13.1
11	NYJ	10.0	-	8.5	-1.5
10	TB	10.7	-	1.9	-8.8
9	ATL	9.1	-	9.1	-0.0
8	CLE	9.4	-	7.7	-1.7
7	TEN	9.3	-	7.3	-2.0
6	NO	10.3	-	5.7	-4.6
5	BUF	11.1	-	6.6	-4.5
4	CAR	11.2	-	11.9	+0.7
3	PIT	9.1	-	29.0	+19.9
2	MIA	9.7	-	1.9	-7.8
1	LV	8.8	-	10.6	+1.8

Trending up: 11.9 avg (last 3) vs 6.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs NO

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 14.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 21% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 34% MODERATE, 50% BUST (historical). XGB: 21% BOOM, 22% BUST (balanced). NO defense #10 vs WR (neutral). Low game total (39.0) caps upside. Traded to CAR mid-season, still establishing role. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.0 pts (within 8-20 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	13.0	11.3	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	-	11.5	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	-	33.0	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	-	11.0	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	-	8.6	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	-	16.9	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	-	6.3	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	-	17.9	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	-	13.3	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	-	10.2	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	-	7.8	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	-	16.0	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	-	11.8	-2.1

Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 12.8 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 47% | Bust 18%

Notes: MC: 31% BUST, 43% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 47% BOOM, 18% BUST (bullish). HOWEVER: DNP Wednesday (heel), ECR dropped to WR100, HOU #5 vs WR (tough). Per Hampton Rule, not setting to 0 but heel injury + tough matchup = significant downgrade. If plays, limited snap count likely. Mode: BUST. Projection: 8.0 pts (within 1-9 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	LAR	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	TB	13.7	14.0	12.9	-0.8
12	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	SEA	13.3	-	14.3	+1.0
9	DAL	13.3	-	22.6	+9.3
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	12.5	-	7.8	-4.7
6	IND	11.9	-	5.2	-6.7
5	TEN	12.8	-	13.8	+1.0
4	SEA	11.3	-	18.6	+7.3
3	SF	12.7	-	7.4	-5.3
2	CAR	14.0	-	4.7	-9.3
1	NO	13.9	-	18.1	+4.2

Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs SF

Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 38%

Notes: MC: 67% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 15% BOOM, 38% BUST. SF #11 vs RB (neutral-tough). ECR RB47 is very low. TEN big underdog (-12.5) suggests negative game script. Mode: MODERATE (lower end). Projection: 8.0 pts (within 3-15 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

4-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.99)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (QB) - ARI vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 13.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 38%

Notes: MC: 73% BOOM (historical outlier - small sample). XGB: 14% BOOM, 38% BUST. HOU #1 vs QB - toughest matchup in NFL. ARI underdog by 7.5. QB20 ECR is streaming tier. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 13.0 pts (within 7-22 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	LAR	15.3	19.0	19.0	+3.7
13	TB	17.2	20.5	19.6	+2.4
12	JAX	16.7	-	18.7	+1.9
11	SF	17.9	-	21.9	+3.9
10	SEA	15.3	-	19.4	+4.2
9	DAL	19.4	-	24.8	+5.4
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	16.6	-	19.8	+3.2
6	IND	13.4	-	20.7	+7.3
5	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	CAR	0.0	-	0.2	+0.2
1	NO	0.1	-	0.0	-0.1

6-game streak of beating projections
Averaging 11.7 pts vs 9.4 projected (+24%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.91)
Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs BUF

Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 61%

Notes: MC: 48% BUST, 40% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 8% BOOM, 61% BUST (strong bust signal). BUF #1 vs TE - toughest matchup. TE16 ECR. Despite high game total (49.5), TE rarely benefits. Mode: BUST. Projection: 8.0 pts (within 2-8 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NYG	11.2	-	11.3	+0.1
12	CIN	11.4	-	24.5	+13.1
11	NYJ	10.0	-	8.5	-1.5
10	TB	10.7	-	1.9	-8.8
9	ATL	9.1	-	9.1	-0.0
8	CLE	9.4	-	7.7	-1.7
7	TEN	9.3	-	7.3	-2.0
6	NO	10.3	-	5.7	-4.6
5	BUF	11.1	-	6.6	-4.5
4	CAR	11.2	-	11.9	+0.7
3	PIT	9.1	-	29.0	+19.9
2	MIA	9.7	-	1.9	-7.8
1	LV	8.8	-	10.6	+1.8

Trending up: 11.9 avg (last 3) vs 6.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs WSH

Projections: ESPN 10.8 | LLM 10.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 55%

Notes: MC: 58% BUST, 22% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 14% BOOM, 55% BUST. BUT: WSH #27 vs RB (excellent matchup!). Game total 46.0, NYG slight favorites. Trust matchup over XGB. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts (within 4-16 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NE	6.3	-	19.2	+12.9
12	DET	9.9	-	4.7	-5.2
11	GB	9.6	-	17.7	+8.1
10	CHI	9.7	-	10.3	+0.6
9	SF	5.5	-	7.1	+1.6
8	PHI	1.2	-	3.8	+2.6
7	DEN	0.8	-	0.2	-0.6
6	PHI	1.0	-	1.0	+0.0
5	NO	6.0	-	3.4	-2.6
4	LAC	7.4	-	2.8	-4.6
3	KC	1.1	-	1.1	+0.0
2	DAL	3.2	-	1.0	-2.2
1	WSH	3.5	-	0.9	-2.6

Averaging 5.2 pts vs 4.6 projected (+13%)
Trending down: 8.0 avg (last 3) vs 11.7 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Luther Burden III (WR) - CHI vs CLE

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 44%

Notes: MC: 57% MODERATE, 31% BUST (historical). XGB: 14% BOOM, 44% BUST. CLE #8 vs WR (tough). Low game total (39.5). CHI offense struggling. WR35 ECR. Mode: MODERATE (lower end). Projection: 8.0 pts (within 3-15 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	GB	10.3	8.0	11.0	+0.7
13	PHI	8.3	-	7.6	-0.7
12	PIT	7.6	-	9.1	+1.5
11	MIN	6.2	-	5.7	-0.5
10	NYG	3.4	-	8.1	+4.7
9	CIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	BAL	4.8	-	0.9	-3.9
7	NO	4.9	-	3.1	-1.8
6	WSH	4.8	-	9.1	+4.3
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	LV	5.8	-	1.6	-4.2
3	DAL	2.7	-	19.8	+17.1
2	DET	2.7	-	1.5	-1.2
1	MIN	3.2	-	0.7	-2.5

Averaging 5.6 pts vs 4.6 projected (+21%)
Trending up: 9.2 avg (last 3) vs 4.6 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.01)
Season high: 19.8 pts in Week 3

Opponent Starter Analysis

Player	Pos	Team	ESPN	LLM	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%	Threat
Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	8.9	8.9	28%	48%	23%	MEDIUM
Commanders D/ST	D/ST	WSH	3.2	8.0	24%	38%	38%	MEDIUM
Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	15.7	13.5	18%	60%	22%	LOW
Jake Elliott	K	PHI	8.0	8.0	17%	29%	54%	LOW
Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	16.1	17.1	13%	68%	19%	LOW
Sean Tucker	RB	TB	2.9	10.1	11%	48%	41%	LOW
Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	12.0	12.0	9%	36%	55%	LOW
A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	16.8	15.7	9%	35%	56%	LOW
Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	16.7	20.8	9%	36%	55%	LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Dalton Schultz: MC (BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 28% | Bust 23%)

Commanders D/ST: MC (BUST: 42% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 24% | Bust 38%)

Justin Jefferson: MC (BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 6%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 22%)

Jake Elliott: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 17% | Bust 54%)

Caleb Williams: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 19%)

Sean Tucker: MC (BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 51% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 41%)

Emeka Egbuka: MC (BUST: 41% | MODERATE: 31% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)

A.J. Brown: MC (BUST: 19% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 37%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 56%)

Jonathan Taylor: MC (BUST: 51% | MODERATE: 25% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)

Add/Drop Recommendations with MC Evidence

Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (7): Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Luther Burden III (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts))

ADD Chiefs D/ST D/ST,

Boom%43%

Bust%21%

EV7.4

BUST: 27% (-4-8) MODERATE: 47% (1-13) BOOM: 26% (7-22)

ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,

Boom%42%

Bust%20%

EV12.1

BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 40% (8-20) BOOM: 13% (14-28)

ADD Garrett Wilson WR,

Boom%36%

Bust%35%

EV14.8

BUST: 38% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (10-22) BOOM: 23% (17-32)

ADD Evan Engram TE,

Boom%34%

Bust%14%

EV8.3

BUST: 69% (3-9) MODERATE: 29% (9-18) BOOM: 2% (20-32)

ADD Isiah Pacheco RB,

Boom%32%

Bust%16%

EV8.0

BUST: 68% (1-9) MODERATE: 29% (7-19) BOOM: 3% (17-32)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

Player	Pos	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%	Own%
Chiefs D/ST	D/ST	7.4	43%	21%	0.0%
J.K. Dobbins	RB	12.1	42%	20%	0.0%
Garrett Wilson	WR	14.8	36%	35%	0.0%
Evan Engram	TE	8.3	34%	14%	0.0%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	8.0	32%	16%	0.0%
Trey Benson	RB	8.8	29%	26%	0.0%
Michael Badgley	K	8.6	27%	54%	0.0%
Chuba Hubbard	RB	11.5	21%	31%	0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn	K	10.3	20%	22%	0.0%
Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	10.5	20%	9%	0.0%
Kyler Murray	QB	16.8	20%	35%	0.0%
Aaron Rodgers	QB	14.6	19%	56%	0.0%
Matthew Golden	WR	9.0	18%	48%	0.0%
Patriots D/ST	D/ST	8.8	18%	47%	0.0%
Cooper Kupp	WR	10.0	16%	58%	0.0%

QB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Kyler Murray	16.8	BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25%	20%	35%
Aaron Rodgers	14.6	BUST:50%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:22%	19%	56%
Justin Fields	16.4	BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30%	15%	43%

RB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
J.K. Dobbins	12.1	BUST:47%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:13%	42%	20%
Isiah Pacheco	8.0	BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3%	32%	16%
Trey Benson	8.8	BUST:33%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:24%	29%	26%
Chuba Hubbard	11.5	BUST:25%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:29%	21%	31%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	8.9	BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14%	10%	68%

WR Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Garrett Wilson	14.8	BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:23%	36%	35%
Matthew Golden	9.0	BUST:41%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:31%	18%	48%
Cooper Kupp	10.0	BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12%	16%	58%
Rashid Shaheed	10.1	BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32%	12%	66%
Keenan Allen	11.9	BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10%	11%	66%

TE Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Evan Engram	8.3	BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2%	34%	14%
Harold Fannin Jr.	10.5	BUST:40%, MODERATE:44%, BOOM:16%	20%	9%
Colston Loveland	9.8	BUST:42%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:16%	10%	60%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Michael Badgley	8.6	27%	54%
Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.3	20%	22%
Evan McPherson	9.5	14%	68%

D/ST Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Chiefs D/ST	7.4	43%	21%
Patriots D/ST	8.8	18%	47%
Dolphins D/ST	8.7	14%	63%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 15 | Generated: 2025-12-10 18:23

Matchup Summary

85.0%

Win Probability

+27.0

Expected Margin

122.0

My Team (LLM Proj)

95.0

Opponent (Proj)

33.2

Margin Std Dev

124.1

My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -32.3 pts | Median: +11.2 pts | Ceiling: +53.1 pts

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Jacoby Brissett	QB	MED	13.0	4.2-27.9	↑15+: 65% \| ↓5-: 12%
Bucky Irving	RB	MED	16.0	5.4-24.1	↑15+: 43% \| ↓5-: 9%
Omarion Hampton	RB	HIGH	11.0	3.7-24.4	↑15+: 37% \| ↓5-: 16%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	MED	21.0	6.3-30.4	↑15+: 63% \| ↓5-: 4%
Rashee Rice	WR	MED	15.0	6.1-27.6	↑15+: 56% \| ↓5-: 5%
Jameson Williams	WR	HIGH	17.0	4.1-25.1	↑15+: 49% \| ↓5-: 14%
Juwan Johnson	TE	HIGH	9.0	2.9-16.6	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 22%
Rams D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	6.0	1.1-18.3	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 34%
Jason Myers	K	MED	12.0	5.2-17.1	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 8%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Jordan Love	QB	MED	15.0	6.5-28.0	↑15+: 54% \| ↓5-: 6%
Tyjae Spears	RB	HIGH	8.0	2.4-18.5	↑15+: 17% \| ↓5-: 26%
Devin Singletary	RB	HIGH	10.0	0.7-18.6	↑15+: 17% \| ↓5-: 51%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	HIGH	14.0	5.3-25.4	↑15+: 29% \| ↓5-: 8%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	HIGH	8.0	3.9-21.8	↑15+: 32% \| ↓5-: 16%
Luther Burden III	WR	HIGH	8.0	1.2-17.6	↑15+: 15% \| ↓5-: 33%
Hunter Henry	TE	HIGH	8.0	3.4-22.1	↑15+: 18% \| ↓5-: 26%

Opponent

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Caleb Williams	QB	HIGH	17.0	6.0-29.9	↑15+: 52% \| ↓5-: 6%
Jonathan Taylor	RB	HIGH	20.8	8.7-38.1	↑15+: 52% \| ↓5-: 0%
Sean Tucker	RB	HIGH	10.0	1.3-27.5	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 37%
Justin Jefferson	WR	HIGH	13.4	5.6-22.6	↑15+: 38% \| ↓5-: 7%
A.J. Brown	WR	HIGH	15.7	2.6-29.1	↑15+: 47% \| ↓5-: 16%
Emeka Egbuka	WR	HIGH	12.1	3.4-24.4	↑15+: 32% \| ↓5-: 22%
Dalton Schultz	TE	HIGH	9.0	2.8-17.3	↑15+: 17% \| ↓5-: 30%
Commanders D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	7.8	0.5-16.4	↑15+: 14% \| ↓5-: 40%
Jake Elliott	K	HIGH	8.0	2.2-14.8	↑15+: 9% \| ↓5-: 33%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
C.J. Stroud	QB	HIGH	14.3	5.3-25.3	↑15+: 41% \| ↓5-: 9%
Kenneth Gainwell	RB	HIGH	10.1	1.7-24.1	↑15+: 22% \| ↓5-: 35%
Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	HIGH	12.5	4.8-24.5	↑15+: 28% \| ↓5-: 11%
Courtland Sutton	WR	HIGH	12.9	5.6-22.0	↑15+: 37% \| ↓5-: 6%
Jakobi Meyers	WR	HIGH	12.5	5.3-21.6	↑15+: 32% \| ↓5-: 8%
Khalil Shakir	WR	HIGH	10.8	1.8-20.3	↑15+: 26% \| ↓5-: 26%
David Njoku	TE	HIGH	9.2	3.5-18.3	↑15+: 20% \| ↓5-: 30%

Scenario Details

Player	Position	BOOM	MODERATE	BUST	EV
Bucky Irving	RB	19% @ 24.3	65% @ 14.2	17% @ 5.0	14.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	29% @ 28.6	41% @ 18.7	30% @ 7.6	18.2
Rashee Rice	WR	43% @ 24.3	26% @ 16.0	31% @ 7.4	16.9
Omarion Hampton	RB	27% @ 23.0	47% @ 12.0	26% @ 4.8	13.1
Jason Myers	K	20% @ 16.9	47% @ 11.8	33% @ 6.4	11.0
Juwan Johnson	TE	32% @ 14.9	42% @ 9.1	26% @ 3.7	9.6
Jameson Williams	WR	24% @ 24.1	47% @ 15.7	30% @ 5.4	14.6
Jacoby Brissett	QB	73% @ 21.3	2% @ 14.7	25% @ 5.8	17.3
Rams D/ST	D/ST	22% @ 17.5	39% @ 9.2	40% @ 4.0	8.9

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

Player	Pos	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%
Jason Myers	K	8.5	12.0	MODERATE	55.5%	29.6%	14.8%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	12.8	8.0	BUST	47.4%	35.0%	17.6%
Jordan Love	QB	14.8	15.0	MODERATE	27.1%	51.4%	21.5%
Rashee Rice	WR	17.2	15.0	MODERATE	25.1%	42.2%	32.7%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	13.2	14.0	MODERATE	21.0%	56.9%	22.1%
Tyjae Spears	RB	10.1	8.0	MODERATE	15.0%	47.5%	37.6%
Juwan Johnson	TE	9.7	9.0	MODERATE	14.9%	25.1%	60.1%
Luther Burden III	WR	8.1	8.0	MODERATE	14.4%	41.9%	43.7%
Devin Singletary	RB	10.8	10.0	MODERATE	13.8%	31.0%	55.2%
Jacoby Brissett	QB	13.9	13.0	MODERATE	13.6%	48.0%	38.4%
Rams D/ST	D/ST	4.2	6.0	BUST	13.5%	25.8%	60.7%
Jameson Williams	WR	13.9	17.0	MODERATE	13.0%	39.2%	47.8%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	20.8	21.0	MODERATE	12.4%	64.1%	23.5%
Bucky Irving	RB	15.2	16.0	MODERATE	11.1%	38.5%	50.4%
Omarion Hampton	RB	11.7	11.0	MODERATE	10.8%	39.0%	50.1%
Hunter Henry	TE	10.3	8.0	BUST	8.4%	30.5%	61.1%

League Standings

Week 15 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank	Team	Record	PF (Total)	PA (Total)	+/-	This Week	Streak	Playoff %
1	Kitty's Piggy Skins	10-4	1744.9	1548.1	+196.8	0.0 vs 0.0	W3	100.0%
2	4th and pinches	9-5	1633.8	1645.4	-11.6	0.0 vs 0.0	W1	99.9%
3	Valued Customers ←	8-6	1686.6	1445.6	+241.0	0.0 vs 0.0	W4	73.8%
4	Wookie of the Year	8-6	1601.3	1616.8	-15.5	0.0 vs 0.0	W2	58.7%
5	Meat Pistols	8-6	1429.7	1471.9	-42.3	0.0 vs 0.0	L1	34.0%
6	Ryan's Rowdy Team	7-7	1644.8	1620.4	+24.4	0.0 vs 0.0	L2	24.2%
7	Torta Pounders Football Club	7-7	1610.5	1537.4	+73.1	0.0 vs 0.0	L1	9.4%
8	Moms rules	6-8	1536.5	1662.1	-125.6	0.0 vs 0.0	L2	0.0%
9	Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	6-8	1478.5	1531.2	-52.7	0.0 vs 0.0	L4	0.0%
10	Smooth Roosters	6-8	1471.5	1561.6	-90.1	0.0 vs 0.0	W2	0.0%
11	The Warsaw Pact	5-9	1495.1	1646.5	-151.4	0.0 vs 0.0	W1	0.0%
12	Auto DraftKings	4-10	1584.9	1631.2	-46.3	0.0 vs 0.0	L3	0.0%

Week 15 Matchups

Away Team		Home Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins	@	Moms rules
4th and pinches	@	Torta Pounders Football Club
Valued Customers	@	Auto DraftKings
Wookie of the Year	@	Ryan's Rowdy Team
Meat Pistols	@	Smooth Roosters
Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	@	The Warsaw Pact

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Cumulative Points

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Week 15 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

11.4

Our Team MAE

25 players

11.1

Opponent MAE

9 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 11.4

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Error
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	20.8	21.0	-21.0
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	13.9	17.0	-17.0
Opponent	WR	A.J. Brown	16.8	-	-16.8
Opponent	RB	Jonathan Taylor	16.7	-	-16.7
Opponent	QB	Caleb Williams	16.1	-	-16.1
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	15.2	16.0	-16.0
Opponent	WR	Justin Jefferson	15.7	-	-15.7
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	14.8	15.0	-15.0
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	17.2	15.0	-15.0
Our Team	WR	Justin Jefferson	15.7	15.0	-15.0
Our Team	QB	Caleb Williams	16.1	15.0	-15.0
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	13.2	14.0	-14.0
Our Team	RB	Jonathan Taylor	16.7	14.0	-14.0
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	13.9	13.0	-13.0
Opponent	WR	Emeka Egbuka	12.0	-	-12.0
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.5	12.0	-12.0
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	11.7	11.0	-11.0
Our Team	WR	A.J. Brown	16.8	11.0	-11.0
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	10.8	10.0	-10.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.7	9.0	-9.0
Our Team	WR	Emeka Egbuka	12.0	9.0	-9.0
Our Team	TE	Dalton Schultz	8.9	9.0	-9.0
Opponent	TE	Dalton Schultz	8.9	-	-8.9
Opponent	K	Jake Elliott	8.0	-	-8.0
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	12.8	8.0	-8.0
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	10.1	8.0	-8.0
Our Team	TE	Hunter Henry	10.3	8.0	-8.0
Our Team	WR	Luther Burden III	8.1	8.0	-8.0
Our Team	RB	Sean Tucker	2.9	8.0	-8.0
Our Team	K	Jake Elliott	8.0	7.0	-7.0
Our Team	D/ST	Commanders D/ST	3.2	7.0	-7.0
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	4.2	6.0	-6.0
Opponent	D/ST	Commanders D/ST	3.2	-	-3.2
Opponent	RB	Sean Tucker	2.9	-	-2.9

Week 14 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_013 (2025-12-08)

2.3

Our Team MAE

16 players

7.0

Opponent MAE

10 players

13.6

Free Agent MAE

3 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 5.1

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Actual	Error
Free Agent	QB	Sam Darnold	0.0	-	22.3	+22.3
Free Agent	RB	Devin Neal	0.0	-	15.4	+15.4
Opponent	K	Brandon Aubrey	8.9	8.9	24.0	+15.1
Opponent	QB	Patrick Mahomes	17.9	20.1	6.3	-13.8
Opponent	WR	DJ Moore	9.1	11.9	0.6	-11.3
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.6
Opponent	D/ST	Vikings D/ST	5.2	6.3	15.0	+8.7
Opponent	RB	Nick Chubb	5.3	7.5	0.3	-7.2
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	12.1	8.0	14.7	+6.7
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	20.9	22.0	28.1	+6.1
Opponent	WR	Keon Coleman	6.7	9.2	3.6	-5.6
Opponent	TE	Dalton Kincaid	10.0	9.6	14.1	+4.5
Opponent	WR	Malik Washington	8.4	8.2	4.0	-4.2
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.3	10.0	14.0	+4.0
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	6.8	9.0	6.0	-3.0
Our Team	WR	Luther Burden III	10.3	8.0	11.0	+3.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Commanders D/ST	0.0	-	3.0	+3.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.7	10.0	7.8	-2.2
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.3
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	17.6	18.0	19.3	+1.3
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	16.4	16.0	16.1	+0.1
Opponent	RB	Ollie Gordon II	3.2	7.8	7.7	-0.1
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	15.3	19.0	19.0	+0.0
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	13.8	17.3	17.3	+0.0
Our Team	TE	Hunter Henry	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Opponent	RB	Ray Davis	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

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XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 15 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.