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LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jordan Love | DEN | 14.8 | 15.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Bucky Irving | ATL | 15.2 | 16.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Omarion Hampton | KC | 11.7 | 11.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | IND | 20.8 | 21.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| WR | Jameson Williams | LAR | 13.9 | 17.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | CAR | 9.7 | 9.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | IND | 8.5 | 12.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| D/ST | Rams D/ST | DET | 4.2 | 6.0 | BUST | HIGH |
| WR | Rashee Rice | LAC | 17.2 | 15.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Luther Burden III (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts))
Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup
See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.
Week 15 presents a favorable matchup against Auto DraftKings with a projected 122-95 advantage. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR1 ECR) leads the charge against a weak Indianapolis secondary, while Jameson Williams benefits from the week's highest game total (53.5) against the Rams. Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) is a game-time decision and sits on the bench as a precaution, with Rashee Rice drawing the FLEX start despite a tough Chargers matchup.
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 13.9 | 13.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 15.2 | 16.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB | 11.7 | 11.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 20.8 | 21.0 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | 17.2 | 15.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 9.7 | 9.0 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | RB/WR/TE | 13.9 | 17.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.5 | 12.0 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 4.2 | 6.0 |
| Devin Singletary (bench) | RB | BE | 10.8 | 10.0 |
| Hunter Henry (bench) | TE | BE | 10.3 | 8.0 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | 14.8 | 15.0 |
| Luther Burden III (bench) | WR | BE | 8.1 | 8.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | 12.8 | 8.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | 13.2 | 14.0 |
| Tyjae Spears (bench) | RB | BE | 10.1 | 8.0 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | QB | QB | 16.1 | --- |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | RB | 16.7 | --- |
| Sean Tucker | RB | RB | 2.9 | --- |
| A.J. Brown | WR | WR | 16.8 | --- |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | WR | 15.7 | --- |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | TE | 8.9 | --- |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | RB/WR/TE | 12.0 | --- |
| Jake Elliott | K | K | 8.0 | --- |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 3.2 | --- |
| C.J. Stroud (bench) | QB | BE | 17.2 | --- |
| Courtland Sutton (bench) | WR | BE | 13.2 | --- |
| David Njoku (bench) | TE | BE | 4.1 | --- |
| Jakobi Meyers (bench) | WR | BE | 11.9 | --- |
| Kenneth Gainwell (bench) | RB | BE | 12.6 | --- |
| Khalil Shakir (bench) | WR | BE | 10.5 | --- |
| Wan'Dale Robinson (bench) | WR | BE | 14.7 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 49% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 27% BOOM, 22% BUST (balanced). DEN has #4 ranked pass defense - tough matchup limits upside. Game total 41.5 is moderate. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts (within 9-24 range).
Context: O/U: 41.5ˢ | ECR: 16ˢ
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | - | 7.1 | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | - | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | - | 7.8 | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | - | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | - | 28.3 | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | - | 13.4 | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | - | 15.0 | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | - | 26.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | - | 11.1 | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | - | 20.9 | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | - | 15.9 | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 73% BOOM (historical outlier - small sample). XGB: 14% BOOM, 38% BUST. HOU #1 vs QB - toughest matchup in NFL. ARI underdog by 7.5. QB20 ECR is streaming tier. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 13.0 pts (within 7-22 range).
Context: O/U: 43.5ˢ | ECR: 20ˢ
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | - | 18.7 | +1.9 |
| 11 | SF | 17.9 | - | 21.9 | +3.9 |
| 10 | SEA | 15.3 | - | 19.4 | +4.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 19.4 | - | 24.8 | +5.4 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 16.6 | - | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | IND | 13.4 | - | 20.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1 | NO | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 65% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 11% BOOM, 50% BUST (concerning). Despite poor XGB, ATL is #23 vs RB (favorable) and ECR is RB8. TB favored by 5.5 with 44.5 total suggests positive game script. Trust ECR over XGB bust signal. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts (within 8-20 range).
MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 65% | BOOM: 19%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 50% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | NO | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | -0.3 |
| 13 | ARI | 11.8 | 12.0 | 16.1 | +4.3 |
| 12 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | NE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | NO | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | PHI | 17.5 | - | 25.5 | +8.0 |
| 3 | NYJ | 17.9 | - | 13.9 | -4.0 |
| 2 | HOU | 15.9 | - | 18.1 | +2.2 |
| 1 | ATL | 17.3 | - | 14.5 | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 67% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 15% BOOM, 38% BUST. SF #11 vs RB (neutral-tough). ECR RB47 is very low. TEN big underdog (-12.5) suggests negative game script. Mode: MODERATE (lower end). Projection: 8.0 pts (within 3-15 range).
Context: O/U: 43.5ˢ | ECR: 47ˢ
MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%
XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 11.7 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 11% BOOM, 50% BUST (bearish). LAC at KC in divisional game, LAC slight underdog. Hampton has RB22 ECR, moderate role. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 11.0 pts (within 6-18 range).
Context: O/U: 44.5ˢ | ECR: 22ˢ
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 50% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 18.6 | - | 13.0 | -5.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 16.7 | - | 27.5 | +10.8 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.2 | - | 24.9 | +12.7 |
| 2 | LV | 15.7 | - | 3.5 | -12.2 |
| 1 | KC | 14.7 | - | 8.1 | -6.6 |
Projections: ESPN 10.8 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 58% BUST, 22% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 14% BOOM, 55% BUST. BUT: WSH #27 vs RB (excellent matchup!). Game total 46.0, NYG slight favorites. Trust matchup over XGB. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts (within 4-16 range).
Context: O/U: 46.0ˢ | ECR: 32ˢ
MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 20.8 | LLM 21.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 41% MODERATE, 29% BOOM (historical). XGB: 12% BOOM, 24% BUST (moderate). WR1 ECR ranking, IND #21 vs WR (favorable), SEA -10 favorites. High target volume expected. Mode: MODERATE (upper end). Projection: 21.0 pts (within 13-25 range).
MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 24% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | ATL | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +7.2 |
| 13 | MIN | 21.9 | 24.0 | 4.3 | -17.6 |
| 12 | TEN | 21.3 | - | 37.1 | +15.8 |
| 11 | LAR | 23.0 | - | 20.6 | -2.4 |
| 10 | ARI | 22.0 | - | 20.3 | -1.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 24.5 | - | 22.0 | -2.5 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 20.0 | - | 26.3 | +6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 17.9 | - | 30.2 | +12.3 |
| 5 | TB | 15.9 | - | 27.2 | +11.3 |
| 4 | ARI | 16.4 | - | 13.0 | -3.4 |
| 3 | NO | 15.5 | - | 20.6 | +5.1 |
| 2 | PIT | 14.4 | - | 18.3 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 14.7 | - | 19.4 | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 34% MODERATE, 50% BUST (historical). XGB: 21% BOOM, 22% BUST (balanced). NO defense #10 vs WR (neutral). Low game total (39.0) caps upside. Traded to CAR mid-season, still establishing role. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.0 pts (within 8-20 range).
Context: O/U: 39.0ˢ | ECR: 13ˢ
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 21% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 12.8 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 31% BUST, 43% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 47% BOOM, 18% BUST (bullish). HOWEVER: DNP Wednesday (heel), ECR dropped to WR100, HOU #5 vs WR (tough). Per Hampton Rule, not setting to 0 but heel injury + tough matchup = significant downgrade. If plays, limited snap count likely. Mode: BUST. Projection: 8.0 pts (within 1-9 range).
Context: O/U: 43.5ˢ | ECR: 100ˢ
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 47% | Bust 18% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 31% BUST, 26% MODERATE, 43% BOOM (historical). XGB: 25% BOOM, 33% BUST (cautious). LAC #1 vs WR - elite defense severely caps ceiling. ECR WR7 shows talent but matchup is brutal. Mode: MODERATE (lower end). Projection: 15.0 pts (within 10-22 range).
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 33% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE, 24% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13% BOOM, 48% BUST (bearish). BUT: Game total 53.5 is ELITE, LAR #19 vs WR (favorable), WR10 ECR. DET offense explosive. XGB bust signal likely noise - trust game environment. Mode: MODERATE (upper). Projection: 17.0 pts (within 10-22 range).
Context: O/U: 53.5ˢ | ECR: 10ˢ
MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +3.5 |
| 13 | GB | 11.8 | 15.1 | 26.9 | +15.1 |
| 12 | NYG | 12.9 | - | 0.0 | -12.9 |
| 11 | PHI | 12.6 | - | 19.7 | +7.1 |
| 10 | WSH | 12.1 | - | 23.9 | +11.8 |
| 9 | MIN | 11.0 | - | 16.6 | +5.6 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | TB | 13.2 | - | 0.0 | -13.2 |
| 6 | KC | 10.7 | - | 18.6 | +7.9 |
| 5 | CIN | 11.8 | - | 2.0 | -9.8 |
| 4 | CLE | 10.7 | - | 5.7 | -5.0 |
| 3 | BAL | 12.9 | - | 6.3 | -6.6 |
| 2 | CHI | 13.0 | - | 18.8 | +5.8 |
| 1 | GB | 12.9 | - | 6.6 | -6.3 |
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 57% MODERATE, 31% BUST (historical). XGB: 14% BOOM, 44% BUST. CLE #8 vs WR (tough). Low game total (39.5). CHI offense struggling. WR35 ECR. Mode: MODERATE (lower end). Projection: 8.0 pts (within 3-15 range).
Context: O/U: 39.5ˢ | ECR: 35ˢ
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 12%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | GB | 10.3 | 8.0 | 11.0 | +0.7 |
| 13 | PHI | 8.3 | - | 7.6 | -0.7 |
| 12 | PIT | 7.6 | - | 9.1 | +1.5 |
| 11 | MIN | 6.2 | - | 5.7 | -0.5 |
| 10 | NYG | 3.4 | - | 8.1 | +4.7 |
| 9 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | BAL | 4.8 | - | 0.9 | -3.9 |
| 7 | NO | 4.9 | - | 3.1 | -1.8 |
| 6 | WSH | 4.8 | - | 9.1 | +4.3 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | LV | 5.8 | - | 1.6 | -4.2 |
| 3 | DAL | 2.7 | - | 19.8 | +17.1 |
| 2 | DET | 2.7 | - | 1.5 | -1.2 |
| 1 | MIN | 3.2 | - | 0.7 | -2.5 |
Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 42% MODERATE, 26% BUST (historical). XGB: 15% BOOM, 60% BUST (bearish). CAR #20 vs TE (favorable) but low game total (39.0) and XGB bust signal concerning. TE15 ECR is mid-tier. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts (within 5-14 range).
Context: O/U: 39.0ˢ | ECR: 15ˢ
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%
XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -1.9 |
| 13 | MIA | 8.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | +0.2 |
| 12 | ATL | 9.3 | - | 10.6 | +1.3 |
| 11 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | CAR | 8.9 | - | 19.2 | +10.2 |
| 9 | LAR | 8.3 | - | 12.1 | +3.8 |
| 8 | TB | 9.6 | - | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 7 | CHI | 7.5 | - | 12.9 | +5.4 |
| 6 | NE | 7.9 | - | 1.5 | -6.4 |
| 5 | NYG | 7.9 | - | 3.7 | -4.2 |
| 4 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 3 | SEA | 10.6 | - | 11.1 | +0.5 |
| 2 | SF | 9.1 | - | 15.9 | +6.8 |
| 1 | ARI | 7.3 | - | 15.6 | +8.3 |
Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 48% BUST, 40% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 8% BOOM, 61% BUST (strong bust signal). BUF #1 vs TE - toughest matchup. TE16 ECR. Despite high game total (49.5), TE rarely benefits. Mode: BUST. Projection: 8.0 pts (within 2-8 range).
Context: O/U: 49.5ˢ | ECR: 16ˢ
MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%
XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 61% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NYG | 11.2 | - | 11.3 | +0.1 |
| 12 | CIN | 11.4 | - | 24.5 | +13.1 |
| 11 | NYJ | 10.0 | - | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 10 | TB | 10.7 | - | 1.9 | -8.8 |
| 9 | ATL | 9.1 | - | 9.1 | -0.0 |
| 8 | CLE | 9.4 | - | 7.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | TEN | 9.3 | - | 7.3 | -2.0 |
| 6 | NO | 10.3 | - | 5.7 | -4.6 |
| 5 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 6.6 | -4.5 |
| 4 | CAR | 11.2 | - | 11.9 | +0.7 |
| 3 | PIT | 9.1 | - | 29.0 | +19.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 9.7 | - | 1.9 | -7.8 |
| 1 | LV | 8.8 | - | 10.6 | +1.8 |
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 14.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 21% | Bust 22%
Notes: MC: 34% MODERATE, 50% BUST (historical). XGB: 21% BOOM, 22% BUST (balanced). NO defense #10 vs WR (neutral). Low game total (39.0) caps upside. Traded to CAR mid-season, still establishing role. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.0 pts (within 8-20 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 12.8 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 47% | Bust 18%
Notes: MC: 31% BUST, 43% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 47% BOOM, 18% BUST (bullish). HOWEVER: DNP Wednesday (heel), ECR dropped to WR100, HOU #5 vs WR (tough). Per Hampton Rule, not setting to 0 but heel injury + tough matchup = significant downgrade. If plays, limited snap count likely. Mode: BUST. Projection: 8.0 pts (within 1-9 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%
XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 38%
Notes: MC: 67% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 15% BOOM, 38% BUST. SF #11 vs RB (neutral-tough). ECR RB47 is very low. TEN big underdog (-12.5) suggests negative game script. Mode: MODERATE (lower end). Projection: 8.0 pts (within 3-15 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 13.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 38%
Notes: MC: 73% BOOM (historical outlier - small sample). XGB: 14% BOOM, 38% BUST. HOU #1 vs QB - toughest matchup in NFL. ARI underdog by 7.5. QB20 ECR is streaming tier. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 13.0 pts (within 7-22 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | - | 18.7 | +1.9 |
| 11 | SF | 17.9 | - | 21.9 | +3.9 |
| 10 | SEA | 15.3 | - | 19.4 | +4.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 19.4 | - | 24.8 | +5.4 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 16.6 | - | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | IND | 13.4 | - | 20.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1 | NO | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%
XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 61%
Notes: MC: 48% BUST, 40% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 8% BOOM, 61% BUST (strong bust signal). BUF #1 vs TE - toughest matchup. TE16 ECR. Despite high game total (49.5), TE rarely benefits. Mode: BUST. Projection: 8.0 pts (within 2-8 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NYG | 11.2 | - | 11.3 | +0.1 |
| 12 | CIN | 11.4 | - | 24.5 | +13.1 |
| 11 | NYJ | 10.0 | - | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 10 | TB | 10.7 | - | 1.9 | -8.8 |
| 9 | ATL | 9.1 | - | 9.1 | -0.0 |
| 8 | CLE | 9.4 | - | 7.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | TEN | 9.3 | - | 7.3 | -2.0 |
| 6 | NO | 10.3 | - | 5.7 | -4.6 |
| 5 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 6.6 | -4.5 |
| 4 | CAR | 11.2 | - | 11.9 | +0.7 |
| 3 | PIT | 9.1 | - | 29.0 | +19.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 9.7 | - | 1.9 | -7.8 |
| 1 | LV | 8.8 | - | 10.6 | +1.8 |
Projections: ESPN 10.8 | LLM 10.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 55%
Notes: MC: 58% BUST, 22% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 14% BOOM, 55% BUST. BUT: WSH #27 vs RB (excellent matchup!). Game total 46.0, NYG slight favorites. Trust matchup over XGB. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts (within 4-16 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 12%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 44%
Notes: MC: 57% MODERATE, 31% BUST (historical). XGB: 14% BOOM, 44% BUST. CLE #8 vs WR (tough). Low game total (39.5). CHI offense struggling. WR35 ECR. Mode: MODERATE (lower end). Projection: 8.0 pts (within 3-15 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | GB | 10.3 | 8.0 | 11.0 | +0.7 |
| 13 | PHI | 8.3 | - | 7.6 | -0.7 |
| 12 | PIT | 7.6 | - | 9.1 | +1.5 |
| 11 | MIN | 6.2 | - | 5.7 | -0.5 |
| 10 | NYG | 3.4 | - | 8.1 | +4.7 |
| 9 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | BAL | 4.8 | - | 0.9 | -3.9 |
| 7 | NO | 4.9 | - | 3.1 | -1.8 |
| 6 | WSH | 4.8 | - | 9.1 | +4.3 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | LV | 5.8 | - | 1.6 | -4.2 |
| 3 | DAL | 2.7 | - | 19.8 | +17.1 |
| 2 | DET | 2.7 | - | 1.5 | -1.2 |
| 1 | MIN | 3.2 | - | 0.7 | -2.5 |
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | 8.9 | 8.9 | 28% | 48% | 23% | MEDIUM | |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | WSH | 3.2 | 8.0 | 24% | 38% | 38% | MEDIUM | |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | 15.7 | 13.5 | 18% | 60% | 22% | LOW | |
| Jake Elliott | K | PHI | 8.0 | 8.0 | 17% | 29% | 54% | LOW | |
| Caleb Williams | QB | CHI | 16.1 | 17.1 | 13% | 68% | 19% | LOW | |
| Sean Tucker | RB | TB | 2.9 | 10.1 | 11% | 48% | 41% | LOW | |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | TB | 12.0 | 12.0 | 9% | 36% | 55% | LOW | |
| A.J. Brown | WR | PHI | 16.8 | 15.7 | 9% | 35% | 56% | LOW | |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 16.7 | 20.8 | 9% | 36% | 55% | LOW |
Dalton Schultz: MC (BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 28% | Bust 23%)
Commanders D/ST: MC (BUST: 42% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 24% | Bust 38%)
Justin Jefferson: MC (BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 6%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 22%)
Jake Elliott: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 17% | Bust 54%)
Caleb Williams: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 19%)
Sean Tucker: MC (BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 51% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 41%)
Emeka Egbuka: MC (BUST: 41% | MODERATE: 31% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)
A.J. Brown: MC (BUST: 19% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 37%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 56%)
Jonathan Taylor: MC (BUST: 51% | MODERATE: 25% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)
Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | D/ST | 7.4 | 43% | 21% | 0.0% | |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 12.1 | 42% | 20% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.8 | 36% | 35% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 8.3 | 34% | 14% | 0.0% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 8.0 | 32% | 16% | 0.0% | |
| Trey Benson | RB | 8.8 | 29% | 26% | 0.0% | |
| Michael Badgley | K | 8.6 | 27% | 54% | 0.0% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | 11.5 | 21% | 31% | 0.0% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | K | 10.3 | 20% | 22% | 0.0% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 10.5 | 20% | 9% | 0.0% | |
| Kyler Murray | QB | 16.8 | 20% | 35% | 0.0% | |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 14.6 | 19% | 56% | 0.0% | |
| Matthew Golden | WR | 9.0 | 18% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Patriots D/ST | D/ST | 8.8 | 18% | 47% | 0.0% | |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 10.0 | 16% | 58% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 16.8 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25% | 20% | 35% | |
| Aaron Rodgers | 14.6 | BUST:50%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:22% | 19% | 56% | |
| Justin Fields | 16.4 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30% | 15% | 43% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 12.1 | BUST:47%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:13% | 42% | 20% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8.0 | BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3% | 32% | 16% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.8 | BUST:33%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:24% | 29% | 26% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | 11.5 | BUST:25%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:29% | 21% | 31% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 8.9 | BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14% | 10% | 68% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 14.8 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:23% | 36% | 35% | |
| Matthew Golden | 9.0 | BUST:41%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:31% | 18% | 48% | |
| Cooper Kupp | 10.0 | BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% | 16% | 58% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | 10.1 | BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% | 12% | 66% | |
| Keenan Allen | 11.9 | BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10% | 11% | 66% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 8.3 | BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2% | 34% | 14% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 10.5 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:44%, BOOM:16% | 20% | 9% | |
| Colston Loveland | 9.8 | BUST:42%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:16% | 10% | 60% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Badgley | 8.6 | 27% | 54% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | 10.3 | 20% | 22% | |
| Evan McPherson | 9.5 | 14% | 68% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | 7.4 | 43% | 21% | |
| Patriots D/ST | 8.8 | 18% | 47% | |
| Dolphins D/ST | 8.7 | 14% | 63% |
Win Probability
Floor: -32.3 pts | Median: +11.2 pts | Ceiling: +53.1 pts
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 13.0 | 4.2-27.9 | ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 12% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | MED | 16.0 | 5.4-24.1 | ↑15+: 43% | ↓5-: 9% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 11.0 | 3.7-24.4 | ↑15+: 37% | ↓5-: 16% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | MED | 21.0 | 6.3-30.4 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 15.0 | 6.1-27.6 | ↑15+: 56% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 17.0 | 4.1-25.1 | ↑15+: 49% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.9-16.6 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 22% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.0 | 1.1-18.3 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 34% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 12.0 | 5.2-17.1 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 8% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 15.0 | 6.5-28.0 | ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 6% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 8.0 | 2.4-18.5 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| Devin Singletary | RB | HIGH | 10.0 | 0.7-18.6 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 51% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 14.0 | 5.3-25.4 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 8% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 8.0 | 3.9-21.8 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 16% | |
| Luther Burden III | WR | HIGH | 8.0 | 1.2-17.6 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 33% | |
| Hunter Henry | TE | HIGH | 8.0 | 3.4-22.1 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 26% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | QB | HIGH | 17.0 | 6.0-29.9 | ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 6% | |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | HIGH | 20.8 | 8.7-38.1 | ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Sean Tucker | RB | HIGH | 10.0 | 1.3-27.5 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 37% | |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | HIGH | 13.4 | 5.6-22.6 | ↑15+: 38% | ↓5-: 7% | |
| A.J. Brown | WR | HIGH | 15.7 | 2.6-29.1 | ↑15+: 47% | ↓5-: 16% | |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | HIGH | 12.1 | 3.4-24.4 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 22% | |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.8-17.3 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 30% | |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 7.8 | 0.5-16.4 | ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 40% | |
| Jake Elliott | K | HIGH | 8.0 | 2.2-14.8 | ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 33% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | QB | HIGH | 14.3 | 5.3-25.3 | ↑15+: 41% | ↓5-: 9% | |
| Kenneth Gainwell | RB | HIGH | 10.1 | 1.7-24.1 | ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 35% | |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | HIGH | 12.5 | 4.8-24.5 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | HIGH | 12.9 | 5.6-22.0 | ↑15+: 37% | ↓5-: 6% | |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | HIGH | 12.5 | 5.3-21.6 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 8% | |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | HIGH | 10.8 | 1.8-20.3 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| David Njoku | TE | HIGH | 9.2 | 3.5-18.3 | ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 30% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 19% @ 24.3 | 65% @ 14.2 | 17% @ 5.0 | 14.6 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 29% @ 28.6 | 41% @ 18.7 | 30% @ 7.6 | 18.2 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 43% @ 24.3 | 26% @ 16.0 | 31% @ 7.4 | 16.9 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 27% @ 23.0 | 47% @ 12.0 | 26% @ 4.8 | 13.1 |
| Jason Myers | K | 20% @ 16.9 | 47% @ 11.8 | 33% @ 6.4 | 11.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 32% @ 14.9 | 42% @ 9.1 | 26% @ 3.7 | 9.6 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 24% @ 24.1 | 47% @ 15.7 | 30% @ 5.4 | 14.6 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 73% @ 21.3 | 2% @ 14.7 | 25% @ 5.8 | 17.3 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 22% @ 17.5 | 39% @ 9.2 | 40% @ 4.0 | 8.9 |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Myers | K | 8.5 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 55.5% | 29.6% | 14.8% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 12.8 | 8.0 | BUST | 47.4% | 35.0% | 17.6% |
| Jordan Love | QB | 14.8 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 27.1% | 51.4% | 21.5% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 17.2 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 25.1% | 42.2% | 32.7% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 13.2 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 21.0% | 56.9% | 22.1% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 10.1 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 15.0% | 47.5% | 37.6% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 9.7 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 14.9% | 25.1% | 60.1% |
| Luther Burden III | WR | 8.1 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 14.4% | 41.9% | 43.7% |
| Devin Singletary | RB | 10.8 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 13.8% | 31.0% | 55.2% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 13.9 | 13.0 | MODERATE | 13.6% | 48.0% | 38.4% |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 4.2 | 6.0 | BUST | 13.5% | 25.8% | 60.7% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 13.9 | 17.0 | MODERATE | 13.0% | 39.2% | 47.8% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 20.8 | 21.0 | MODERATE | 12.4% | 64.1% | 23.5% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 15.2 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 11.1% | 38.5% | 50.4% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 11.7 | 11.0 | MODERATE | 10.8% | 39.0% | 50.1% |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 10.3 | 8.0 | BUST | 8.4% | 30.5% | 61.1% |
Week 15 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.
| Rank | Team | Record | PF (Total) | PA (Total) | +/- | This Week | Streak | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 10-4 | 1744.9 | 1548.1 | +196.8 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W3 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 9-5 | 1633.8 | 1645.4 | -11.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 99.9% |
| 3 | Valued Customers ← | 8-6 | 1686.6 | 1445.6 | +241.0 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W4 | 73.8% |
| 4 | Wookie of the Year | 8-6 | 1601.3 | 1616.8 | -15.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 58.7% |
| 5 | Meat Pistols | 8-6 | 1429.7 | 1471.9 | -42.3 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 34.0% |
| 6 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 7-7 | 1644.8 | 1620.4 | +24.4 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 24.2% |
| 7 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7-7 | 1610.5 | 1537.4 | +73.1 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 9.4% |
| 8 | Moms rules | 6-8 | 1536.5 | 1662.1 | -125.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 9 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 6-8 | 1478.5 | 1531.2 | -52.7 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L4 | 0.0% |
| 10 | Smooth Roosters | 6-8 | 1471.5 | 1561.6 | -90.1 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 0.0% |
| 11 | The Warsaw Pact | 5-9 | 1495.1 | 1646.5 | -151.4 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 0.0% |
| 12 | Auto DraftKings | 4-10 | 1584.9 | 1631.2 | -46.3 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L3 | 0.0% |
| Away Team | Score | Score | Home Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Moms rules |
| 4th and pinches | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Torta Pounders Football Club |
| Valued Customers | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Auto DraftKings |
| Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Ryan's Rowdy Team |
| Meat Pistols | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Smooth Roosters |
| Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | The Warsaw Pact |
Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.
No waiver recommendations this week.
No major injury concerns.
Live data from completed games
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.8 | 21.0 | 0.0 | -21.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.9 | 17.0 | 0.0 | -17.0 |
| Opponent | WR | A.J. Brown | 16.8 | - | 0.0 | -16.8 |
| Opponent | RB | Jonathan Taylor | 16.7 | - | 0.0 | -16.7 |
| Opponent | QB | Caleb Williams | 16.1 | - | 0.0 | -16.1 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Justin Jefferson | 15.7 | - | 0.0 | -15.7 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 14.8 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.2 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Justin Jefferson | 15.7 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Caleb Williams | 16.1 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.2 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Jonathan Taylor | 16.7 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 13.9 | 13.0 | 0.0 | -13.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Emeka Egbuka | 12.0 | - | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.5 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 11.7 | 11.0 | 0.0 | -11.0 |
| Our Team | WR | A.J. Brown | 16.8 | 11.0 | 0.0 | -11.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 10.8 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Emeka Egbuka | 12.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Dalton Schultz | 8.9 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Opponent | TE | Dalton Schultz | 8.9 | - | 0.0 | -8.9 |
| Opponent | K | Jake Elliott | 8.0 | - | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 12.8 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 10.1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 10.3 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Luther Burden III | 8.1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Sean Tucker | 2.9 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jake Elliott | 8.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | -7.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Commanders D/ST | 3.2 | 7.0 | 0.0 | -7.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 4.2 | 6.0 | 0.0 | -6.0 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Commanders D/ST | 3.2 | - | 0.0 | -3.2 |
| Opponent | RB | Sean Tucker | 2.9 | - | 0.0 | -2.9 |
Final review from run_013 (2025-12-08)
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Agent | QB | Sam Darnold | 0.0 | - | 22.3 | +22.3 |
| Free Agent | RB | Devin Neal | 0.0 | - | 15.4 | +15.4 |
| Opponent | K | Brandon Aubrey | 8.9 | 8.9 | 24.0 | +15.1 |
| Opponent | QB | Patrick Mahomes | 17.9 | 20.1 | 6.3 | -13.8 |
| Opponent | WR | DJ Moore | 9.1 | 11.9 | 0.6 | -11.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.6 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Vikings D/ST | 5.2 | 6.3 | 15.0 | +8.7 |
| Opponent | RB | Nick Chubb | 5.3 | 7.5 | 0.3 | -7.2 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +6.7 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +6.1 |
| Opponent | WR | Keon Coleman | 6.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | -5.6 |
| Opponent | TE | Dalton Kincaid | 10.0 | 9.6 | 14.1 | +4.5 |
| Opponent | WR | Malik Washington | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | -4.2 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.3 | 10.0 | 14.0 | +4.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | -3.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Luther Burden III | 10.3 | 8.0 | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Commanders D/ST | 0.0 | - | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -2.2 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.3 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.3 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | +0.1 |
| Opponent | RB | Ollie Gordon II | 3.2 | 7.8 | 7.7 | -0.1 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Ray Davis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
No discrepancies detected this week.